2023 Science Reporting Seminar

Our Science Reporting Seminar in May 2023 brought together five expert presenters who shared their insightful research on various critical aspects of the Great Lakes.

Johan Lehman discussed the habitats and threats to the Blanding’s Turtle in Eastern Georgian Bay. The turtle’s use of varied wetland habitats and unusual nesting preference for human-developed areas emphasizes the need for site-specific protections and measures to mitigate human impact.

Jacqueline Vinden revealed the trends in water quality of Eastern Georgian Bay. While E. coli and phosphorus concentrations have decreased over time, she highlights concerning areas like Honey Harbor and Oak Bay. Her innovative, community-friendly approach for tracking nearshore water quality using periphyton offers a new way forward in water monitoring.

Bill Bialkowski‘s talk centered on the complex issue of water levels in the Great Lakes, particularly Lake Superior and Lake Michigan-Huron. He addressed the historical effects of human activity on these levels, evaluated government responses, and projected future scenarios under different climate change conditions.

Rob Nairn focused on the difficulties of predicting future lake levels for Michigan-Huron and Erie, emphasizing the limitations of global climate models and the role of cyclical patterns. His forecast model considers these patterns and requires regular updates for accurate predictions in light of climate change impacts.

Lastly, Professor Pat Chow-Fraser shed light on the surprising responses of Georgian Bay marshes to extreme water level fluctuations, noting major shifts in wetland vegetation and the emergence of novel habitats. She emphasized the importance of further research to understand the effects of these changes on the ecosystem.

Each of these presentations provides a wealth of information and fresh perspectives on the challenges facing the Great Lakes and the broader ecosystem. They underscore the need for continued research, adaptive strategies, and community involvement to safeguard these vital resources. If these topics resonate with you or if you’re simply curious to know more, we highly recommend watching the seminar videos for a deeper understanding of the subjects.

Bridging Knowledge Gaps for Protection and Recovery:
Habitat Use and Threats of the Blanding’s Turtle
in eastern Georgian Bay

Key Takeaways

1. The Blanding’s Turtle, an endangered species in Canada, uses a variety of wetland habitats, including complex shallow water and coastlines. They even use deep open water for travel, an atypical behavior.
2. During the nesting season, Blanding’s Turtles showed a significant preference for human-developed areas, such as roadsides, docks, and marinas. This preference poses substantial risks to the population due to potential vehicle encounters and increased predation rates on nests.
3. The study site in eastern Georgian Bay displayed the largest variation in overwintering habitat types, indicating high-quality habitat for Blanding’s Turtles.
4. Critical habitats for Blanding’s Turtles vary significantly across different study sites, implying the need for site-specific protections and regulations based on scientific studies.
5. Despite constituting only 1.3% of the study site, human development disproportionately impacts the Blanding’s Turtle population in the area. More research is needed to understand how to mitigate the threats posed by roadsides, docks, and marinas effectively.

Monitoring water quality for recreational use
in nearshore waters of Eastern Georgian Bay

Key Takeaways

1. Decrease in Pollutants: There has been a general decrease in E. coli and total phosphorus concentrations over time, likely due to dilution factors associated with higher water levels.
2. Areas of Concern: Certain areas, particularly Honey Harbor and Oak Bay, consistently showed higher levels of E. coli and phosphorus, indicating a need for focused attention and action.
3. Impact of Development: The study found a positive correlation between E. coli and phosphorus levels and road density, as well as the proportion of modified land area, suggesting that development can significantly impact water quality.
4. Recommendations for Improvement: Recommendations included continued sampling, microbial source tracking, strategic sampling during and after storm events, limiting development, naturalizing existing shoreline areas, and ensuring septic systems are maintained properly.
5. Novel Method for Community Monitoring: The research also introduced a novel method for tracking changes in nearshore water quality using periphyton, which is accessible to local communities and provides a different perspective on water quality than traditional grab samples.

Science Advisory Update – Water Levels

Key Takeaways

1. Human Impact: Human activities, such as dredging and mining, dating back to 1865, have significantly impacted the water levels in the Great Lakes, particularly Lake Superior and Lake Michigan-Huron.
2. Ineffective Regulation: The Lake Superior Regulation Plan, a balancing algorithm designed to manage water levels, has not been as effective as hoped, leading to issues with water management.
3. Government Inaction: Despite numerous studies and recommendations, government agencies have not been effective in addressing the issue of water levels in the Great Lakes.
4. Future Predictions: A study by Environment Canada predicts future water levels under different climate change scenarios, suggesting that we may see more extreme water levels in the future, with both the upper and lower limits likely to be exceeded.
5. Potential Solutions: Bialkowski proposed potential solutions to manage water levels, including the use of hydraulic models and flexible structures to control water flow. He also suggested considering temporary increases to the outflow of the Chicago diversion.
6. Need for Urgent Action: Given the predictions of more extreme water levels due to climate change, there is an urgent need for action. Bialkowski emphasized the importance of implementing proposed solutions and urged government agencies to take the issue more seriously.

Lake Level Predictions for Michigan-Huron and Erie –
Review of Ability to Predict, 2005-2019, 2019-2023

Key Takeaways

1. Limitations of Global Climate Models: Global climate models have limitations in predicting future lake levels as they do not account for many cyclical factors in climate.
2. Importance of Cyclical Patterns: The speakers highlighted the importance of cyclical patterns in predicting future lake levels. They have developed a simple approach that uses these patterns for forecasting.
3. Impact of Climate Change: Climate change is a significant factor affecting lake levels. However, its impact over short periods (5-10 years) is considered small compared to natural cyclical patterns.
4. Need for Regular Updates: The speakers emphasized the need for regular updates to lake level predictions to account for the impacts of climate change.
5. Uncertainty in Predictions: There is a significant amount of uncertainty in lake level predictions, which should be considered when interpreting these predictions.
6. Importance of Localized Models: The speakers highlighted the importance of using localized models for predicting lake levels, as global models may not accurately capture local environmental factors and conditions.

Breaking all the Rules:
Unpredictable response of
Georgian Bay marshes
to water-level disturbance

Key Takeaways

1. Georgian Bay marshes are in excellent condition with low stresses related to human activities, but they are highly sensitive to water level extremes.
2. The area has experienced unprecedented low water levels for 14 consecutive years, followed by seven years of high levels, leading to significant changes in the wetland vegetation zones.
3. Terrestrial habitats expanded during low water periods, and aquatic habitats shrank.
4. When water levels rebounded, many trees and shrubs began to die, creating a novel habitat of dead and dying vegetation.
5. These changes have led to challenges in monitoring the fish community and have potentially impacted the wildlife community, including the nesting migrations of female Blanding’s turtles.

There is a need for more research to understand the impact of these changes on the ecosystem and to develop strategies that are specific to the unique conditions of Georgian Bay.