You helped us sound the alarm in 2003 and again in 2013 when Georgian Bay hit a new record low water level. Remember the dried-up wetlands, stranded boats, and billions in economic losses?
Now Environment Canada predicts water levels will drop another meter below that 2013 record low by 2030. Here’s what you need to know:
This isn’t only climate change. The independent research we funded proved that the St. Clair River—Georgian Bay’s "drain"—is still eroding. Ice jams scour the riverbed deeper every winter because of US ships trying to get through when the Seaway is supposed to be closed. This increases the outflow and lowers our water levels.
Bluewater bridge at Sarnia where ice booms could prevent ice jams (similar to the Niagara River ice booms)
The Canadian Ice Breaker CCGS Samuel Risley operating in St. Clair River
February 2021-23 and again in 2025 major Ice jams in St. Clair River with the Canadian ice breaker breaking up the ice so a small number of US ships can get through.
The ice layers up – up to 26 feet thick and the force of the water erodes the sand and soft sediments on the riverbed during these ice jams. The IJC confirmed this in their 2007 Upper Lakes Study, but nothing has been done to compensate for this loss.
In 2013 The International Joint Commission (IJC) advised our governments (1) to conduct a comprehensive study of flows in the St Clair River, and (2) to study flexible structures for the St Clair River that would hold back water during low supplies but not interfere with high supplies. We have now completed (1) showing conveyance has continued to increase. Now with Federal funding support we could contract W.F. Baird & Assoc. again to complete this research.
Neither Canada nor the US has responded. In 2024 and again in 2025 Environment Canada rejected Georgian Bay Great Lakes Foundation’s funding request to do this complex hydraulic control engineering work. This work is complex and requires high levels of hydraulic control engineering skills and Bill Bialkowski has these skills and experience to be able to work on this with us. Bill’s design of submerged flexible hydrofoil wings needs review via 3D modeling on the St. Clair River as the IJC requested.
So, as we’ve always done, we are acting anyway.
In 2025, we contracted W.F. Baird & Associates—the same internationally respected coastal consulting engineering firm behind our 2003 breakthrough research—this time, to determine whether the St. Clair River continues to erode? When government-supplied data proved inadequate, Baird went above and beyond to develop an innovative alternative method to complete the research. Finding: ongoing riverbed erosion continues to increase the outflow.
The results are undeniable. This is not happening on the other Great Lakes. They are all tightly regulated and have control gates and Control Boards that set monthly outflows.
We’ve recently shared our recent work with Ontario’s Environment Minister Todd McCarthy, who “gets it” and has agreed to arrange an urgent meeting with Federal Environment Minister Julie Dabrusin.
Here’s our challenge: We need financial resources to fund this ongoing research and to keep the pressure on Ottawa while we have momentum. We’re asking you to contribute to our $25,000 year-end campaign.
Your gift will fund: (1) sustaining our well recognized technical expertise and research, (2) participation in the Great Lakes Days in Ottawa and Washington to educate and gather support in 2026 and, (3) our advocacy efforts through the crucial federal meetings ahead.
After 23 years of research, we’re closer than ever to compelling government action in the St. Clair River— but only if we can sustain this fight.
Every winter that passes means more erosion. Every dollar you give today funds the independent research and advocacy that could save Georgian Bay.
Can we count on you again, please?
Gratefully,
Mary Muter, Chair,
Georgian Bay Great Lakes Foundation (GBGLF)
P.S. Can’t donate right now? Forward this email to three people who also love Georgian Bay. Awareness is advocacy too.
P.P.S., Here’s a link to our Presentation with Ontario Minister of Environment, Todd McCarthy and staff on November 20, 2025.