Dear Friends and Supporters,
As I reflect today on Canada’s birthday, I’m struck by how far we’ve come—and how urgent our work remains. Over the past 23 years, our team at the Georgian Bay Great Lakes Foundation has worked tirelessly to understand the impacts and address the complex forces driving water level extremes in Georgian Bay.
Thanks to the unwavering commitment of our engineers, researchers, and supporters like you, we’ve uncovered essential truths about how our Great Lakes connecting channels function—and what’s threatening them.
A Turning Point in 2002
In 2002, while observing ship navigation near the Bluewater Bridge in Sarnia, I became curious about the river’s depth. That curiosity led to my call to a U.S. Army Corps of Engineers staffer. To his surprise—and mine—he discovered that the St. Clair River had deepened from 30 feet (last measured when they dredged it to 30 feet in 1962) to now 50 feet and over 70 feet in some areas.
This significant change raised an urgent question: could this increased depth—and the resulting increase in water outflow—be contributing to Georgian Bay’s sustained low water levels?
A Critical Collaboration
That same year, I was introduced to Bill Bialkowski, a hydraulic engineer and fellow Georgian Bay advocate. Bill used the depth data to analyze erosion and conveyance increases in the upper St. Clair River. His early modeling confirmed what we feared: increased erosion was likely contributing to water loss from Lake Huron and Georgian Bay.
I also obtained from the National Air Photo library in Ottawa a series of air photos of the outflow of Lake Huron into the St. Clair River beginning in early 2010 to 1993 that showed all the shoreline and navigation changes including sand and gravel mining of the outflow – collectively altering the outflow forever without any assessment of impacts.
Together, we brought our findings to W.F. Baird & Associates, a leading coastal engineering firm. In collaboration with Dr. Rob Nairn and Dr. Qimiao Ma, they confirmed the potential for increased outflow due to historical changes—including the removal of natural sand and gravel bars that once restricted water flow.
Baird’s 2003 study, using a two-dimensional model, strongly recommended that governments commission a full three-dimensional analysis to determine the extent of the problem.
Bureaucratic Inertia and Missed Opportunities
We presented Baird’s findings to the International Joint Commission (IJC), which launched its own study. Unfortunately, the study’s lead engineer refused to use a 3D model, limiting its conclusions. In 2013, the IJC ultimately issued a formal “Advice to Governments” urging further study and recommending flexible structural solutions in the St. Clair River to address extreme low water levels without interfering with high flows, shipping, or fish movement.
Disappointingly, neither the Canadian nor U.S. governments have acted on that advice.
The Window is Closing
Today, the urgency is greater than ever. Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) predicts that by 2030, Georgian Bay and Lakes Michigan and Huron could fall a full 1 meter below their record low in 2013. The ecological and economic consequences would be devastating.
Given these stakes, our board has approved funding to re-engage W.F. Baird & Associates to develop the long-recommended three-dimensional model of the St. Clair River. This model will tell us exactly how much the river’s conveyance has changed—and increased the outflow contributing to the overall decline of our water levels.
The report is expected in late August. We will share it with both governments, the IJC, our U.S. colleagues—and with you.
This is the Final Leg of a Long Journey
This moment represents the culmination of decades of work and advocacy. We are closer than ever to identifying the root causes of Georgian Bay’s water level instability—and implementing a long-overdue, science-backed solution.
We couldn’t have come this far without your support. And we’ll need it now more than ever.
How You Can Help
If you would like to continue supporting this critical effort, here’s how to donate:
Thank you for being a part of this journey—and for standing with Georgian Bay at this pivotal time.
With deep gratitude,
Mary Muter
Chair, Georgian Bay Great Lakes Foundation