Introduction:

Thank you to all our dedicated supporters—your contributions have been invaluable. Today, we face a challenge reminiscent of the sudden water level declines of 1999-2001. Once again, Georgian Bay’s water levels are at risk, and without intervention, the consequences could be catastrophic for our ecosystems, economy, and way of life.

The Issue:

Water levels are falling, and Environment and Climate Change Canda (ECCC) predictions indicate they could drop 1 meter below the 2013 record low by 2030. While climate change plays a role, another critical factor—increased conveyance capacity in the St. Clair River—is being overlooked. Wetlands are drying up, aquatic habitats are vanishing, and our local economy faces dire consequences. What will you do if shallow waters make access to your cottage inaccessible?

What’s at Stake?

• Wetlands could dry up again, destroying fish spawning habitats and aquatic ecosystems.
• Shorelines may become barren, leaving Georgian Bay’s iconic 30,000 islands vulnerable.
• Property access and recreation could be severely limited, harming the economy.
• Enclosed bays with little exchange of water to the open bay could again develop toxic blue green algae prohibiting use of the water for any purpose.

Photo is of docks at Honey Harbour 2012. ECCC is predicting that by 2030 water levels could decline to 1 meter below this!

What’s Happening Now?

The water and air temperatures in Georgian Bay are significantly above average, and as cooler winter temperatures arrive, evaporation is likely to increase. Warmer water temperatures may again prevent ice from forming across much of the Great Lakes this winter, exacerbating water loss. Last year, many properties remained accessible by water throughout the winter—an unusual and concerning sign.

Meanwhile, Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) is dismissing evidence of increased flow in the St. Clair River. Their models attribute the decline solely to climate change, overlooking the contribution of increased conveyance capacity.

The St. Clair River Problem

Our research, led by retired hydraulic control engineer Bill Bialkowski and other experts, shows that the St. Clair River’s capacity to carry water has increased over time due to erosion and changes in the riverbed. During the last navigation dredging in the 1960s, hard rock rubble was removed from the riverbed, leaving exposed sand and clay vulnerable to erosion during major ice jams.

ECCC’s predictions may underestimate the rate of water level decline because they fail to account for these changes. Without action, we could face severe ecological and economic impacts within as little as four years.

Our Proposed Solution:

We’ve requested $2M in funding from the federal government to engage the internationally respected coastal consulting firm W.F. Baird & Associates. This work would:

1. Collect Current Data: Compare modern bathymetric data of the St. Clair River to historical records to quantify changes in flow capacity.
2. Stabilize the Riverbed: Develop a plan to prevent further erosion by laying down protective materials, such as rock rubble.
3. Design Flexible Retention Strategies: Identify measures to retain water in Lakes Michigan, Huron, and Georgian Bay during low supply periods, without interfering with shipping or fish habitats or high outflow conditions during high water levels.
4. Ensure Oversight: Advocate for a formalized management system for the St. Clair River, similar to the outflow control boards in place for Lakes Superior and Ontario. Currently there is no oversight of this critical outflow – the ever increasing outflow through the St. Clair River.

So far, ECCC staff have declined to fund this critical research, citing it as beyond their mandate. We have met with senior Ottawa political leaders and remain committed to pursuing federal funding and advocating for change.

How You Can Help:

Our organization, Georgian Bay Great Lakes Foundation (GBGLF), relies on your support to fund our research, attend key meetings, and continue raising awareness. Together, we can push for the solutions Georgian Bay urgently needs.

Final Thoughts

The time to act is now. With your support, we will work to get flexible mitigation measures in place to alleviate the economic and ecological impacts of declining water levels and preserve Georgian Bay for generations to come. Together, we can make a difference.

Due to the mail strike and backlog, sending donations by mail may not result in obtaining 2024 tax receipts. Instead HCF has offered to receive donations by e-transfer (live link) with no fees taken and to issue tax receipts as long as the transfer happens before Dec 31, 2024. Please send your e-transfer by December 29 to allow it to clear the banks before December 31, 2024, and indicate that it is for GBGLF in the notation line.

Thanks for your support!

Mary Muter, Chair, Georgian Bay Great Lakes Foundation